HGSI - Another Low Tight Flag!!

Worked like a charm on NFLX - Netflix last night.  Working for HGSI this evening.

Click Chart to Enlarge

Is NFLX a Low Tight Flag?

The stock gets cut in half in four weeks on very heavy volume and holds tight for the last three weeks on lower volume as the stock market rallied strongly (See Chart Below).  The company blundered big time recently by first raising prices and then trying to split in two.  They've reversed on the split up, but the price increases stay.  The stock reports tomorrow after hours, and in my opinion the report is going to be really bad along with the guidance.  You have to imagine that the company took a big financial hit and will need a few quarters to turn around and prove that they are the best again and can fight off the comptetion from Amazon (AMZN), Apple(AAPL), and cable companies.  At this point the bulls are so nervous in the stock, that any perceived bad news, especially unexpected bad news, they are ready to sell at any price.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

If I'm right, I just termed my first base, The Low Tigh Flag. The reverse of a rare High Tight Flag which is very powerful and profitbale if identified correctly. Coined by William J. Oneil in his book How to Make Money in Stocks (A must read).  Time will be the judge.  For now, you decide.

As always love to hear the comments and questions.

48 Short Setups to Watch

Continue to believe the next big tradeable move in the market is down.  The market would have to do alot more work to convince me otherwise.  If you see a good entry, take it and use a stop.  Get stopped out of a few trades in a row, means that cash is probably the best place until the next round of setups appear, either on the long or short side.

Below is my list of 48 short setups.  Use it wisely:

AKAM TQNT VECO JLL LPX BKD MBI RVBD CBG F PCS OC VHC ROVI TXT GCI IRF ACOM DHX NOG WSM GTAT CTSH AGP GGG ALTR TER CXO EW MCO FNSR KOG NVDA ENTG HUM EXEL VRX HS KLIC AVGO WCG BAS LNG ARMH  SGI ITMN AMRN SODA

You can also scroll through past blogs and tweets for more ideas.

Comments?  Questions?  Email us @CapitalistBull.

For more updates in real-time, follow us @CapitalistBull on Twitter.

34 Short Setup Ideas & Market Update

We continue to hold steadfast to our bearish stance based on our historical models and current indicators.  Having said that, we would use caution in initiating overnight positions.  While day trades have been profitable for the scalper, intra-day trend traders and overnight positions have been subjected to too many violent shakeouts, which could shake a traders confidence for when the time is right.


We are waiting to see more tightness before getting aggressive on the short side.  Over the next two weeks, our belief based on our historical studies and current indicators, the market will present another tradeable short side opportunity.  As of this morning we remain mostly on the sidelines watching the action and updating our lists.  


AMRN AVGO SIRI NXPI ACAS FTNT APKT ATML VMED SWKS IPXL IMAX JDSU RVBD THC CRUS PCS F MBI KND FFIV NTAP AIG VPRT PWER UIS CTB FOE GOL OMX LDK RDN MTG YOKU


Follow us Twitter, @CapitalistBull, for the latest updates.


Always feel free to comment or email us with question, likes, or dislikes.


Enjoy the trading day :o)...

70 Stocks We're Watching for New Short Setups & 43 Leaders To Keep on your Watchlist

Continue to look for short entries into any strength in the stock market. Here is a list of stocks that we will be combing through all week and during the day for low risk short entries:

OMX FST MBI AIG THC PVX CRUS LPX RCL AXL ALV HAR CTSH JBL LDK BPOP ALU VMED NTGR NVDA RAX CTB CENX IMAX BRKR APKT

ONXX ARMH FOE OSK KND BKD PXD GCI KLIC GOL NTAP SFSF IRF WSM FR FOSL MTOR STEC JDSU EXXI COHR IPXL APL CNH TC PCS F ROVI SFI RNOW MTG AKAM MGM VPRT EW MCO AMRN RDN KKR FFIV ATML SGY SIRI BSFT

Remember, early week strength tends to lead to late week weakness.  Market is full of headline risk.  Best to watch the market begin to stall on news related strength and then begin initiating shorts.  This could take a few days to play out even though some stocks could start to show weakness earlier.  Use your judgement and don't get inpatient.

Avoid taking new positions on the long side unless they are for day trades only.  Below is a list of leading stocks that could be setting up for the next big rally.  But it is too early to initiate any of them.  There will be plenty of time and more evidence when the time is right.

JAZZ GMCR PSMT SIMO MRGE ULTA RGR AKRX DMND ATHN HANS ALXN CMG UA STMP MG CPSI HITK RL MKTX WPI IACI MA CHT PCLN QSII AAPL EBAY ISRG LVS NOG JCOM VCLK SWI SIMG JOSB FN ONE CELG GOOG VRA THR UAN

If you're not a day or short trader or investor, then just study your past trades, keep your watchlist fresh, and enjoy the mental break the market is giving.  The time will be right soon enough.

If you want faster and more updates, follow me free on Twitter @CapitalistBull.

Capitalist Bull is back...follow us on twitter @capitalistbull...stay tuned for new market updates.

$Market Readying For Another Spurt Higher

$Market Action Now Dictating Caution...Profit Taking and Trailing Stops Should Be Tightened...No New Adds or Buying...

$Market Action Now Dictating Caution...$Profit Taking and Trailing Stops Should Be Tightened...No New Adds or Buying...$Bearish

Perfect $Market Action Setting Up The Next $Stock Market Rally

Avoid The $Market - Yesterday's $Rally Nothing More Then A $Bull Trap

About the only reasons the market went up yesterday were its oversold condition, POT getting a bid from BHP (which was the only reason for the increase in volume in the market), and the FED pumping liquidity in from its POMO actions.  Otherwise there was nothing to get excited about as thin stocks and beaten down stocks and groups moved higher. 

Volume across the majority of stocks that could be considered leaders was extremely low.  Volume in the market rose only because of the enormous volume in the fertilizer stocks and related stocks.  We can argue it's August, but when they want to buy they buy.  It would have been more impressive if volume would have risen minus the extraordinary volume in the Fertilizer and related stocks.

Maintain cash levels and look for shorts.  If you don't short, go on vacation for the rest of the month and maybe beyond.  Too soon to look out that far, but it doesn't look good.

Good Luck

Sell $Stocks and $Market Into Strength

The underlying leadership suffered a significant blow this week.  Without a miracle here, and I don't expect one, the market is poised to test the July lows at a minimum.  There is no need to hold anything long.  It would be like trying to find a needle in a haystack, to find the one or two stocks that might buck the market's trend.

$Cash - Continue to Recommend Cash

Since the start of the rally it has been hard to get bullish even though there was evidence of a possible start of a tradeable rally or even a bull market.  But the entire time, my model refused to go to a buy signal.  Generally that has meant that unless you are really nimble, you're best position is in cash.

The market continues its main theme, following the Euro/Yen conversion.  As long as we stay correlated to the Euro/Yen we cannot expect the market to have its own mind.

Today's action is very worrisome.  Not because it is a big down day on heavy volume, but because the market cannot keep up with the mini bounces in the Euro/Yen conversion.  The last time we saw this action the market made new lows.  So the market and the Euro/Yen conversion are now at even more critical levels then before.  If  today's or this week's  lows cannot hold over the next week, we will most likely test the year's lows at a minimum.

Stay in cash and be patient.

Remain in $Cash - No Need to Gamble Ahead of Tomorrow's $Job Report

Market continues to muddle at a critical level.  With tomorrow's job's report looming, any longs or shorts ahead of it would be nothing more then a spin of the roulette wheel bet.  Irregardless of the number, whatever direction the market chooses to take tomorrow, there will still be plenty of time to participate on either side of the trade. 

I've personally been taking some well needed time off, peaking in from time to time of course.  So stay patient and prepared.  With the summer doldrums upon us, you might be well served in joining me on a mental retreat.  Whatever you miss in August, is generally more then made up for in the fall.

$Cash Remains The Best Position in the $Market - Careful of the $Bull Trap

While I continue to monitor for changes in the trend, I believe that cash is the safest play.  As much as I'd like to believe the action in the leaders, I have alot of  suspicion and for good reason.

Most leaders have only been able to muster one good day since the follow through.  Many came on below average volume, while the one's that did have strong volume, failed to follow through with more volume over the following days.  Most breakouts have been retraced in almost all of the leaders and are on the verge of failing.  They need to hold or failure will be the next step.

As I noted in my Monday blog, the market had reached an area where failure or a shakeout was extremely likely.  It did not take to long after the post for the market to stall and reverse.

Right now it's best to continue to maintain watchlists and monitor leaders from a distance.  With next weeks big job report, there might just be too much uncertainty ahead of it.  I would not expect the market to do much ahead of the report.

With the slow summer trading ahead of us, the worst case scenario is for the market to keep drifting up in the face of low volume.  9 out of 10 times this has led to a major Bull Trap.  So let's get a nice quiet pullback over the summer and setup for something big in the fall.

PS
If you're into shorting, there are now a good amount of setups that are ready to break if the market heads down.

Stay Patient... $Market Still Needs to Prove Itself

Market at a critical point.  At this level the market will need to prove that it can take out the June highs and hold them.  Historically this would be the area where the market starts to distribute for a second leg down or major shakeout.  So if you're still not long, you'll get your chance.  Right now it's hard to tell if this is a bear market rally or the real deal.  The many breakouts point to the latter, but there is still a question of volume on many of them.  Historically markets have presented multiple entries into a real bull.  So stay patient and don't over commit...just yet.  My models still have this market in the neutral zone.  That could change this weekend, but we will need to see the volume come in.  I would remain mostly in cash and cautious.

A handful of #patience is worth more than a bushel of #brains - #Dutch Proverb

No Place Like $Cash

There is no reason to be a hero in the market.  Essentially the only reason to hold positions is to bet on the outcome of an earnings report.  Besides that, there are almost no good reasons to own stocks right now.  Everything is wide and loose and failing by the day.  Sellers are using good news to sell and bad news to sell.  Not the type of enviroment long positions thrive in.  Best to be patient and wait for the next opportunity to setup.

Still No Upside Volume or Breakouts, Best in Cash

Attempted $Rally Firming...Needs Volume and Breakouts

Patience - Not The Right Time To Buy Back In - Cash is Still King

As great as today may seem on the indexes, there isn't much follow through on the few leaders that have held up.  You'd like to see at least one or two stocks attempt to breakout and hold those breakout levels.  While this can still happen today, the market seems to be working off the excess sell off it experienced over the last two weeks (buy the rumor type buying ahead of the European bank stress tests).

After completing my markets model this weekend, I have no hope for a new rally beginning this week.  Too much damage has been done, and too few leaders are left in tact.  I would advise most to stay in cash or short if you know how, but do not initiate long positions.  There will be plenty of time when the time is right.

The downtrend in the Euro/Yen conversion still dominates the market.  Until we decouple we will have a hard time rallying.

For now just take a break but continue to work on your buy list.  It will be frustrating as a day like today will make you feel like you've missed something.  Don't worry, you haven't.  Another point of frustration will be when the stocks on your lists that look promising breakdown and you'll have to start from scratch.  That is all a part of a bear market.  The good news, if you keep up, when the timing is right, you will be prepared and the first one out of the gate.

PS
There isn't much to write about these days so I will post when I feel something is relevant.  Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend.

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