Sunday, November 26, 2006

The Coming Week

About the only interesting news item on Friday was the falling dollar. Initially it seemed the market would use the news to sell off, but in typical fashion it shook off the news and finished the day barely down.

Nothing really exciting is on the calendar for the week. So keep an eye on the dollar news and see if the reaction continues to be similar to Fridays. We will also get news out of retailers on how black Friday went.

If you're long, stay long, and let the market dictate your next move. For now, there's no real reason to run for the exits.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Market Update - Happy Thanksgiving

So, what's next for the market? They way it's going, the answers seems easy, up. And you'd be right. But there is one problem, too many doubters. So how do you turn the doubters into believers? Give them the correction they've been looking for, and then run the Nasdaq to 3,000. Can you think of a better way to get the retail money back in the game.

The market has the will and ability to pull this off. The news can't be better, oil down, rates down, inflation receding, Iran, Syria, & North Korea quieting down, and tech is starting to outperform. The stories just starting, and one word will fuel it, possibly to the end, VISTA.

Microsoft Vista may fuel an upgrade cycle like we haven't seen since the late 1990's. More drives, RAM, PC chips, video cards, you name it will be in high demand if the software truly spawns the next generation of software that consumers and corporations will want and wouldn't be able to run on their existing machines. In turn, the need for the latest chip manufacturing equipment will be required to expand and keep up with the demand.

Your job now is to look for and keep an eye on the current winners in the run from July. At this point most of these stocks are well into their moves and it would be risky to chase. Wait for the market to correct and look to be a buyer of these names out of new consolidations.

For those curious why it's been so long, I will write about my big recent mistake and how I had to pull myself out of it, soon.