Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Stock Market Outlook 2013: Rising $VIX Extremely Bearish

I would like to wish my readers a Happy Holiday season, a Happy and Prosperous New Year, and Thank You for reading the blog, StockTwits and/or Twitter posts.  I wish I could deliver some bullish news to start the new year, but there are too many signs that the first quarter is going to be extremely turbulent. But, 2013 might not be completely bearish.

Since turning bearish in September, Stock Market Rally Intact But Warning Bells Growing Louder, nothing much has changed.  Followers of the StockTwits or Twitter feeds (follow if you don't for timelier updates) were alerted, that days reversal could be the start of a rally that could carry the market to 52 week highs.  There were enough leading stocks and possible good news out of Washington and FED that could have carried the stock market higher.  But, followers were warned not to over stay their welcome, as the narrowness and length of the consolidations could not sustain the rally much past the 52 week highs.  Unfortunately, as quickly as the market & leading stocks looked good, warning signs started piling up.

The Leading Stocks Analysis, which initially confirmed the possibility of a profitable rally, started flashing a warning signal two weeks ago and has not stopped since (signals precede major pullbacks and correction by as much as two to four weeks).  Since 2006, not heeding the warning signals by taking profits or tightening stops, has led to major profit giveback or losses.

Leading stocks that were poised to breakout, financials, ASPS OCN NSM STI GS, home builders, RYL SPF MHO LEN, gun makers, SWHC RGR, Chemicals, CLMT RNF, commodities, GLD SLV, others, GNRC AAPL PCLN REGN SSYS DDD QIHU ISRG, etc..., failed to breakout, breakouts failed immediately their breakouts, made almost no progress, or just took too long to start breaking out, making them more laggards then leaders (list not all inclusive).  Stocks that have managed to breakout, extremely narrow group, and make progress are too extended to fuel the market much higher.

Short setups which typically fall apart by screaming higher through key moving averages on higher volume, spent most of the time since the November 16th bottom rallying higher on lower volume, stalling at key moving averages, and tightening further.

The big winners of this bull market, started in March 2009, BIDU AAPL GOOG PCLN ISRG ALXN LULU VMW FIRE BWLD CMG NFLX GMCR COH etc..., appear to have put in or started putting in major tops.  Generally when this happens, it is an indication that a bear market is not too far off.  Unfortunately, in the stock market, not too far off isn't always measured in weeks.  In 2006, GOOG and AAPL appeared to have put in major tops only to recover and lead the market higher into November 2007.  Even then, it took another ten months, September 2008, before the bear market really started ravaging the stock market.

The VIX and VXN, measures of stock market volatility, have risen almost in lock step with the stock market, even as the NYSE is attempting to hit 52 week highs.  Indicating that fear is rising and institutions are hedging.  Unlike the contrarian view point of bearish sentiment, when the VIX and VXN start making higher highs and lows, it is extremely bearish and an indication of lower prices ahead.

The good news is that there is still a high probability that this bull market could continue into 2014 after we first experience a major bear like correction of 15 - 25%.  I say bear like, because many of the old leaders could re-appear for one more run.  After all, even Washington isn't looking to hang their political careers and not come up with a Fiscal Cliff and debt ceiling solution even if it is somewhere in the first or second quarter.  Short term the economy will take a hit and spook the markets, but a solution and the FED's commitment to print approximately one trillion dollars a year, forever, will keep the stock market excited for a few more months.  Unfortunately, none of these solutions will get to the bottom of our main problem of balancing our budget and incentivizing job growth, which will ultimately lead to a severe bear market later into 2013 or 2014.

Longer term, the stock market resembles the NASDAQ of the late 1970's.  The market topped in 1968 and spent the next 14 years consolidating sideways, finally bottoming in 1974.  The NASDAQ then spent the next 8 years moving higher, few months up followed by a few months down after the initial surge off the 1974 bottom.  The economy experienced a financial shock between 1973 and 1974 and the government tried similar stimulating solutions that led to the high inflation and stagflation of the late 1970's.  Eventually the government and the FED, realizing the decades poor policy decisions, allowed interest rates to rise and economy to fall into recession to wash out all the excesses that weren't allowed to be cleansed in the early part of the decade.  Unfortunately, until our policy makers stop thinking about re-election and start thinking about the well being of the country as a whole, not in classes, we're in for more of the same.

The overall good news is that the 2009 lows will, in hindsight, be the bottom of the secular bear market/consolidation that started in 2000 with the bursting of the tech bubble and the start of a secular bull market that will run into the 2030's or 2040's.  The bad news is your going to have to be traders until we experience a washout of the stock market and the economy over the next few years.  For now, stay in cash if you don't short and prepare for the next possible leg higher.  If you do short, the short setups listis a good place to start your hunt.  It won't be easy as headline risk continues increasing and good and bad news is hurled at us by our elected officials over the next few months.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Stock Market Rally Intact But Warning Bells Growing Louder

For the first time since the stock market followed through on its current rally, theLeading Stocks Analysis is signaling that a major pullback or correction is on the horizon.  The analysis does signal anywhere from a few days to approximately 4 weeks in advance, so it is not an automatic sell signal, but it is a major cautionary signal and should not be ignored.

This has been a frustrating but profitable rally.  The first two months were extremely difficult to handle and the last month and a half has seen the early breakouts (first two months) follow through while most new breakouts stalled or failed.  If you were not in early, you have been frustrated and knocked around.

Generally a month and a half into a stock market follow through, leadership should be expanding and new leadership should be developing.  Unfortunately,  leadership has been narrowing since almost the follow through day and even recent action has seen most breakouts fail or stall.  Even Shorter term trading setups have failed to follow through longer then a few minutes to a day.

The narrow leadership that continues to run is now extended not only from their initial pivot points, but from any secondary add or initiation points.  Based on history, many leaders are also too extended from their moving averages to make much more progress without some kind of multi-week consolidation.

Essentially, Apple (AAPL) & Google (GOOG) have led and dragged this stock market rally higher even as the rest of the leadership has stalled or broken down.  GOOG is clearly becoming over extended and surpassing our short term price targets, while AAPL still has some room to run.

Any new leadership that is developing show signs of wide and loose trading action, deep erratic corrections, and an inability to follow through on any attempted breakout.

Up to just a few days ago, leading stocks had under performed the general markets on almost a daily basis.  The last four days have seen an out performance in leading stocks, which is likely due to month and year end window dressing by institutions.  This is not sustainable buying and likely to reverse once month end positions are accumulated.

These warning bells are not an all out signal to sell everything and move to cash, but it is a sign that over extended stocks and lagging positions should be sold, or stops significantly tightened, and margin reduced.  There is no reason to stay over exposed to non performing positions & a stock market in which leadership is narrowing quickly and what in hindsight will be called stalling action.

While we do believe that over the next one or two weeks the market and remaining leadership have some more upside, we know from past experience that it only takes a few days, in the wrong positions, to ruin the profits of a rally.  The over extended and lagging positions fall so fast, that most get caught up like deer in headlights.  Don't be a deer, better be a little cautious and take some off the table, then run over.

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Stock Market Rally Follows Through and Early Entries Working


Volume patterns on US indexes have turned decisively positive.  There hasn't been any signs of distribution.  Indexes have tremendous resilience to bad news, and selling volume is suspiciously low.  It seems demand is in the market but everyone is hesitant.  Intermediate trend is up and historical models indicate a low probability of a major bear and more upside to new yearly highs in the coming months.  Next two to four weeks could feel rough as many stocks still need time to complete their consolidations.  Early entries should not be ignored while waiting for more traditional setups before getting aggressive.  Accumulate.  Pullbacks are buying opportunities.


European stock markets could continue rallying on relief over another possible step towards some direction, but over the next few months contagion will continue.  Europe along with the ERUO, Gold, & Silver are going to be in multi month/year bear markets.  Each hiccup will make the US stock markets appear to have topped for good.  Each hiccup will be met with another band aid until they can figure out some master solution.  After which, US rates will begin to rise, tax cuts will expire, & the US economy will undergo a cleansing recession (if allowed), and setup the next great Secular Bull Market. That's the bad and the good of it.


US home prices will not start rising decisively until US interest rates return to normal and employee incomes rise significantly.  There will be fits and starts, but rising rates with slow growth in employee income will keep a cap on home prices in most areas. The fastest route is to incentive growth. That's also the most painful. Higher interest rates, certainty in the tax code and regulatory environment, and a recession that's allowed by the FED and Politicians to cleanse the capital inefficiencies in the private and public sectors.


As always, use the Leading Stock Analysis to find new breakouts, failed breakouts, and focus on the 1 and 2 rated stocks with the new price targets as guides to potential.  Be careful, the stock with the most possible appreciation isn’t always the best stock.  Don’t be greedy, stay patient, and pick the best fundamentals and technicals.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Gennady Kupershteyn Interview with Kate Stalter on the Larry Pesavento - Trade What You See Show

To hear my latest market Stock Market Outlook and Leading Stocks Analysis, listen to my interwiew with Kate Stalter on the Larry Pesavento - Trade What You See Show.  Let me know what you think.  Enjoy.

Click to Download to Listen to The Show

For more regular updates, follow us on Twitter @CapitalistBull.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Upside Remains But Pullback Looms for the Stock Market - Do Not Panic

The stock market and leading stocks have rallied for over fifty plus days without a pullback and continue to act orderly & bullishly. This type of bullish action dictates much further upside for this leg of the bull market, that started early October 2011, in the coming months. But, we cannot ignore the subtle clues we saw this week that now dictate more caution over the next few weeks, until we finally get a pullback or correction.

The Leading Stock Analysis saw the percent of "G" rated stocks

fall below fifty percent.  The analysis tends to warn of an impending pullback or correction between two to four weeks out.  In some rare cases, a pullback or correction has begun within a few days to a week.  Periodically individual leading stocks will act out of character on their way higher, but when they do it collectively we must start to pay attention.

Leading Stocks lagged the stock market for 3 out of 5 days this week.  While it is not unusual for Leading Stocks to pause or lag during the day or periodically, you don't want to see that type of lagging action for most of the week.  Many also acted very wildly intra-day during the week.

Most Leading Stocks are now too extended from their initial and secondary buy points to be considered for investment at this time.  Any purchase here outside of a swing trade will most likely round trip or shake you out during a normal pullback or correction.

Leading Stocks that are just completing their bases are now considered laggards until they can prove themselves through the inevitable pullback or correction.  They are also not as fundamentally strong or fairly valued as the earlier Leading Stocks that broke out.  It's an easy question to ask...Why has it taken them this long to get out of the gate?  Most likely the majority of these will either fail or re-consolidate during the pullback or correction.

The EURUSD which has been critical to the stock markets ability to rally, has itself rallied over six percent in the last two months and approaching the two hundred day moving average above, fueling the NASDAQ's strong advance.  In order for the stock market to continue to move higher, the EURUSD will have to either stay stable or continue to rally.  Unfortunately, the most like scenario here is that it will try and test back to or near its lows set earlier this year in January.  This retest will coincide with the US stock market's pullback or correction. It won't be a straight line down initially, but once it gets going we will have to wait patiently for it to stabilize again before expanding positions and margin.

While a fifty plus day rally without a pullback seems excessive, historically in the last thirty years, ten percent of all NASDAQ rallies lasted fifty days plus.  In two instances, the NASDAQ rallied for over 100 days before it pulled back or corrected.  Good reason not to panic until forced out of strong positions.

None of this is a reason to panic out of any strong, well behaving Leading Stock that is not climaxing out of a late stage base, acting wildly, or just reaching twenty to twenty five percent profit after breaking out earlier in 2012 or towards the end of 2011.  If any of these conditions are true, consider tightening stops or selling outright.  Better off raising some cash or margin, to minimize the impact of a pullback or correction mentally and financially, while stocking up on ammunition for the next low risk entry opportunity.

Stay patient with strong positions early next week.  With two major jobs reports, ADP Wednesday and Unemployment Friday, with Weekly Claims in between on Thursday, the stock market will most likely pause ahead of them.  Recent history being any guide, any major upside surprise will be met with aggressive buying which will lead to the short term top for the stock market.  If the reports do not surprise or even disappoint, be ready to with the decision on which strong positions to hold and which to prune for now.  No need to take on extra risk if the stock market does begin a pullback or correction.  In the meantime, another swing trading opportunity to the long side seems to be presenting itself.

While most strong Leading Stocks will most likely react to a pullback or correction in the stock market, they should be able to find support along key moving averages sooner then the stock market.  This will indicate that you are in the right stocks or it is a stock you want to be paying attention to as the stock market begins to stabilize and turn up.

If NASDAQ history is any guide, the next few months will continue to be profitable for patient investors and swing traders.  Stay alert and do not panic.  As a friend of mine wrote on his wall:


Wednesday, February 15, 2012

AAPL...Was today the TOP?

I do not believe so. Today was an excuse to take profits. The stock has run 37.60% in approximately 9 weeks and needed to take a breathe. Antsy traders got an excuse to take profits and the bears piled on short positions spooking other weak holders into selling. While the stock did seem to exhibit characteristics of a climax run, the action was too flawed.

Climax runs tend to culminate

Sunday, January 29, 2012

More Upside for the Stock Market

The stock market and leading stocks have worked off their over extended condition from last week.  With 3 major Jobs reports this week starting Wednesday with the ADP report, followed by the weekly unemployment report Thursday, and the monthly jobs report Friday, it would not be unusual to see the market pause early in the week ahead of these reports.

Investors participating in this rally since the beginning of the year should now have seen at least some out performance in their equity curves.  The extra cushion should give confidence in holding and adding to out performers while pruning out the laggards to prepare for the eventual pullback or correction.

If an investor is still on the sidelines, there are plenty of stocks that are ready to breakout and working on their consolidations.  Be very selective between the stocks you decide to buy as an investor and stocks that should only be swing traded.  If the stock being considering has multiple bounces off moving averages or breaking out of late stage bases, you should consider vigilantly protecting your profits or at least not watching them turn into losses after a few days.  Stocks breaking out or pulling back to their 10 or 20 day moving averages for the first time out of first and second stage bases are excellent candidates for new positions and add on buys.  In either case trail your position with an appropriate stop (preferably based on historical studies of proper action).  Otherwise take your profit or loss and move on.

It is going to get a lot more difficult from here even though the action in the stock market and leading stocks point to more upside.  All my indicators point to the stock market making 52 week highs before we see a significant correction.  If we make 52 week highs we can put behind us the idea that the top in May was the beginning of a major bear market.  With this technical hurdle out of the way, it will allow major money still sitting on the sidelines to buy into the stock market.  This new buying will most likely coincide closely with a near term top.

The EURUSD has reached its 50 day moving average and could pose a short term problem for the stock market.  Any hint that the currency pair cannot hold the 50 day moving average will most likely be met with selling in the US stock markets.  This reaction should not be feared.  It should be used as another opportunity to initiate new or add on positions.

The Leading Stock Analysis section has been updated.  The list has been reduced further.  The idea is not to try and find every needle in a haystack.  Searching for the needle in a haystack is exhausting and time consuming process that I've rarely seen pay off.  The idea is to have a broad enough list that can be thoroughly reviewed nightly for new ideas without the distraction of too many secondary lagging stocks.  The list contains more then enough strong ideas that will go on to be big winners.

No matter what the current interpretation of the stock market and leading stock action is, stops are the final authority.  If too many start getting triggered and distribution and/or churning/stalling begin to appear in the stock market use caution and be prepared to tighten stops further.  Before the volatility increases prepare to act on which stocks will be held through the next pullback or correction and which should be sold.

Questions and comments are always welcome.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Patience and Discipline with The Bull

Can't argue with the stock market lately.  Up it wants, up it goes. By most measurements the stock market is overextended and overbought. The things is, at the beginning of every leg of the bull market, the stock market tends to get overbought and overextended quickly and stays overbought and overextended. Every sell program is matched by a bigger buy program.

We cannot completely ignore the overbought and overextended conditions. We must keep a close eye for stalling and low volume moves by the stock market and leading stocks. We just haven't had enough to worry about.

NYSE A/D line and IBD Mutual Index have made new highs already.  All, but the NYSE, major US Equity

Indexes have both confirmed their rallies and made higher highs and higher lows.  All major foreign stock markets have now confirmed their rallies and are working on making higher highs.  Bad news is almost completely ignored.  Leading stocks keep breaking out and any breakdown are replaced with two new leading stocks working through their consolidations and closing in on their pivot points.  All strong signs of a bull market.  All point to the stock market making new 52 week highs in the next few weeks before a severe correction.

The EURUSD is finally feeling for a bottom.  It will most likely spend the next week or two rallying to the 50DMA and then roll over for one more test of the recent lows.  That will coincide with a major pullback or correction in the US stock Market.  The pullback will be a buying opportunity and setup the so called fat pitch market, where stocks breakout and just keeps running.  It will also signal that we are at or have crossed the midway point of the final leg of the bull market.  We will need the EURUSD anchor lifted to make significant progress.  Too many trading programs continue to correlate to its movement.

Review, review, and review your positions and leading stocks. You want to be ready to decide which positions to prune, hold, and which stocks you want to buy or add to when the pullback or correction is over as the market runs into its next speed bump. Any stock that can't hold gains or make progress should be on a sell watch list.  Even new buys over the next few days and weeks will be more susceptible to failure having broken out in an overbought and overextended stock market.

If you still haven't participated in this market, focus your buys on the most flawless leading stocks.  Otherwise you may want to wait until the next pullback and look to enter there.  We still haven't seen the best part of this leg of the bull market.  It generally takes up to 5 - 6 months to get everyone rushing on board.  We are approximately 4 months into the the third leg of the bull market that started in March 2009.  Stay patient, along the way there will be several stops to allow new passengers on.

The evidence in front of me favors holding and trading positions, the overbought and overextend market makes me nervous, but until we get stalling or distribution I will stay on board the current uptrend.  I have pruned many positions already and replaced them with new leaders breaking out.  My p&l has finally made progress after a frustrating first three months.  I continue to examine my positions for new stop levels and years of research has me looking for certain action to continue holding the remainder of the positions.

The Leading Stock Analysis Section is updated.  Focus on the 1's and 2's.  Those are the best stocks fundamentally and technically on the list.  They are the one's that have the highest probability of moving higher in this bull market.  The list is updated weekly and new strong stocks come on and weak one's fall off.  The history of previous weeks can be seen by clicking the tabs on the bottom of the list.

As always, comments, questions?  Good Luck.

Monday, January 16, 2012

So Far So Good for the Third Leg of The Bull Market

We couldn't have asked for better trading action in the stock market since the beginning of the year.  Leading stocks are breaking out daily, new leaders are working on their consolidations and preparing to breakout, bad news is shaken off within hours and bought on heavy volume, and economic numbers point to a growing economy.

Pullbacks in the stock market

should be bought.  Based on the positive action, the burden of proof is on the stock market to prove it does not want to rally.  Otherwise if a stock is acting right, then sit tight.  If my analysis is correct about this being the third leg of the Bull Market that started back in March 2009, then we are still in the early innings of this uptrend.

Many continue to disbelief pointing to problems in Europe, the continued devaluation of the US$ by the FED, accelerating inflation, China slowing down, etc.  All this could be around the corner, but right now the stock market and its underlying stocks are acting like stocks and markets do in a bull market not a bear market.  They breakout on heavy volume, pullback on light volume, find support at moving averages, and continue higher on heavier volume.  That's what we got.  If the bad news is going to get worse, we will see distribution, stocks breaking down, breakouts failing, etc...  Then we will take action to move to cash and/or get short.

Many leading stocks have not yet broken out.  So there is still time to get on the train.  At some point the train will speed out of the station and you will then have to be patient to wait until the next stop (pullback) to get back on.  But you will once again face the negative winds of a falling stock market(pullback), bad news, but stocks acting right.  It is never easy to interpret fully in the beginning, only in hindsight.  Clues should always be taken seriously even when everything feels so bad.  That's exactly when things turn for the better.

Use the leading stock analysis section to start your research (explained).  Comments always welcome.  Good Luck.

Leading Stock Analysis Section Explained

Many have asked what all those annotations are in the Leading Stock Analysis Section (Updated 01-12-2014).  I'm going to try and explain it as best as I can w/o going overboard.  The list is narrowed down by from multiple screens based on Historical Studies of Big Winners and tries to only exhibit the best of the best.  In a Strong Bull Market or UpTrend, the list will provide more then enough Big Winners.  Use the list as a starting point for your own Research and not a recommendation to buy or sell the securities.

The Ratings and Ranks Columns have to be used together.  The Reasons Column abbreviates various Pullback and Base Formations.

Ratings Column

G = The Stock has already broken out and is acting fine.
Y = The stock has exhibited a potential sell signal (generally minor), but, these type of signals occur throughout a stocks move and need to be monitored not necessarily acted upon.  If too many stocks are exhibiting similar sell signals then you may need to act upon it.
R = The Stock has exhibited a major sell signal and should be acted upon or watched very closely especially if you don't have a cushion on it.
W = The Stock should be watched for potential short term trading opportunities.

Ranks Column

Sunday, January 08, 2012

Top Reasons This Rally is For Real

I've been Cautiously Bullish for the better part of the last quarter.  I remain Bullish and even More so.  The Reasons for being Bullish continue to Grow while the Reasons to be Bearish Diminish by the day.  So what better way to start the New Year but to have Many Reasons to be Bullish.

Before I start, the Leading Stock Analysis Section has been Updated.  It contains what I believe are the Best Stocks to Watch.  I can't guarantee but I'm sure from past experiences, that if the Rally holds and continues, the List contains Many Stocks that should have Big Moves.  Read the Reasons, Study the Stocks, and hopefully it'll be a Happy New Year.  So what are my Bullish Reasons?

Most Importantly is Current Leading Stocks are no slouches.  They have Strong Fundamentals, Rising Estimates, Strong Fund Ownership, Rising Margins, and Strengthening Technicals.  Can't ask for anything more.  Sure, some of the old guard like BIDU and PCLN appear to be topping, but their consolidation are not long enough yet to be proper.  There is also not enough of them broken yet.  Before Bear Markets the Stock Market is Littered with Dead Former Leaders and the only Reasonable Setup is in Secondary Stocks with Inconsistent Fundamentals.  That's not Currently the Case.

Large Cap Stocks have not Led the Stock Market yet.  Small Caps Led in 2009 and handed off the Baton to Mid Cap Stocks toward the end of 2010.  The Mid Cap Stocks should hand off the Baton to the Large Cap Stocks sometime in 2012.  Makes sense too.  Those Small and Mid Capitalization stocks that have led the Rally from the beginning have now grown up into Large Capitalization Stocks.  Once the Large Capitalization Funds have to own them, their sheer Buying Power puts many of these Stock on Auto-Pilot Buy Programs until the Money runs out.  That could take sometime.  The only thing that changes this is if they change their policies on being 100% invested NO MATTER WHAT.  Silly.

Short Setups at the end of September fell Apart faster then an Raw Egg hitting the floor.  The Bear Market Rally before a Severe Leg Down sees Short Setups Tightening, not Breaking Out on High Volume to the Upside.  That's usually an indication of Bullish Demand by Institutions.  We saw this in March 2009 and August 2010.  Each occurrence marked the Beginning of the First and Second Legs of the Current Bull Market, respectively.  I believe we have just marked the Beginning of the Third Leg of the Bull Market.

The Big Move Up off the Bottom and the subsequent Correction we just had is consistent with Historical Precedent for Beginnings of Bull Markets.

The NYSE A/D line kept making 52 Week Highs while the Stock Market had marked its 52 Week Highs weeks earlier.  The A/D line typically tops well before the Stock Market does not the other way around.  The Third Leg of a Bull Market typically sees the A/D Line Fail to make New Highs.  In many cases it continues to Trend Down (1999 - 2000).

The VIX failed to make New Highs as the Stock Market made New Lows in September and then preceded to move sideways to down as the market corrected into the end of the year.  Historically when the VIX trends lower while the market is correcting, it Leads to a Bull Market NOT a Bear Market.  It indicates subsiding Fear in the Markets, but not Complete Trust.  The Proverbial Wall of Worry.

Bad news out of Europe or Asia is Brushed off within a few hours.  In a Bear Market the Stock Market would have been Knocked into another Down Leg.

The Stock Market has diverged with the falling EURUSD.  The market has followed this Currency almost Tick for Tick for quite sometime.  The continued selling in the Currency Pair is the main reason the Stock Market still feels anchored.  Any relief in the selling will lead to a strong reaction by the Equity Markets.  No one really wants to see Europe fall apart AGAINNN...Yet.

The Europeans have or are pretty close to Punting this Crisis down the Road.  It will be back to bite us again later, but for now everyone just needs a break from it.  Get the Equity Markets and Economy moving, even if temporary, and everyone's focus will be off them.

Finally, because I or my Research said so is NOT a Good Reason.  Your Research has to prove to you that your decisions are correct.  The nice thing about the market is one of us is usually right or wrong. :o) That's not the nice thing, that's what makes it work.  The nice thing is if you are wrong, the market gives you plenty of clues, Losing Trades, Diminishing or Loosening Setups, before you lose your shirt with time to jump on.  Always heed the Warning Signs.  The Old Man in Scooby Doo is Always Right, not Crazy.

I do agree that the stock market needs to prove itself further, unfortunately waiting until the time it starts to become obvious, it's time to stop being a long term investor and become a swing trader.  My point is, if you ever wanted a moment to potentially jump on and ride a Big Winner, the time is now.

If you haven't committed yet, no worries.  I've stated many times in my Tweets that Bull Markets do not just runaway.  They offer many points along the way to get in.  Just don't hesitate because the Train does eventually Leave the Station.  Use Tight Initial Stops andTrade the Right Stocks and the Stock Market will keep you in or out.  Just Prepare for Shakeouts along the way.  I know, a bit confusing, but we have to stay Flexible.  Bottom line, better to be in now then out.  Follow your Roadmap and don't be afraid of Detours.

Hopefully you have found the Blog and the Leading Stock Analysis Section helpful.  As always, I'm open to Question.  Follow me on Twitter for more Regular Thoughts.