Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Time For A Bounce?

We're real close to a possible bounce in the market. Maybe as close as sometime tomorrow. But first I would expect the market to follow through to the downside a bit more. Preferably to the 50DMA. There are a few reason for this:
- Many leaders are at critical support areas.
- The market is not used to the market being down more then two weeks in a row.
- Many of the better short opportunities have either sold off to or nearing critical support.
- Many funds close out their years in October.
The market in the short run is nothing more then the collective buying and selling of all of its participants. Considering that most participants have now gotten used to a quick selloff followed by a rally and the day traders are eyeing the critical support areas for a bounce, it would not be surprising to see a reflex reaction, maybe in the next day or two. Preferably next week…more of rubber band effect.
If you're a long term oriented investor, be careful as the bounce will most likely be nothing more then a bull trap. But traders, load your weapons, you might just get a nice quick tradeable rally. But it will only last a few days to maybe two weeks.
You can follow my short commentary in real time on either Twitter, http://twitter.com/gennady17, or seeking Alpha Stock Talk, http://seekingalpha.com/user/33050/stocktalk.  Enjoy.




Gennady Kupershteyn

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Sunday, October 25, 2009

Cash Cash and more Cash

There is no reason to be a hero at this point.  My weekly analysis of strength in the market already signaled the 2 week warning last week, now it's screaming to get out.  At best this has become a day traders market.  You can wait for a clearer signal on your stocks, but the analysis is doing it for you.





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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Listen to the Market

There's an old cliché in the stock market, listen to the market.  Sounds simple.  It's not.    The market does a great job lying at key turning points. Take tomorrow for example, the market is poised to open 1% higher on strong earnings reports from AAPL and TXN.  Advancers will be greater then decliners, volume will run high, many new 52 week highs, etc.  Sounds great!!  It's not.  That's the lie.  You need to look under the hood, to really see what's driving this market.  So what do I see.


I see a market that's running out of steam.  Leadership is narrowing, many stocks are well extended, and we're at the perfect TRAP TRAP scenario. Shorts have been made to pay the price since the beginning of this bull.  But they have continued to try and hold on and can only endure so much pain. So they need to draw a line in the sand to cover.


Longs have continued to distrust this market, but after watching it rise 70%+, are nervous about missing the rest of the move.  So they too have to draw a line in the sand on how much longer they can wait before buying.


As kind as the market is, it gladly provides the line in the sand for both…at the same time…DOW 10K, Critical Elliot Wave Resistance Point, and strong earnings among other things coming together.  So the shorts are forced to buy to cover in panic, and the underinvested longs just must get invested. Sounds good on the surface.  Wrong again.  This was the final money on the sidelines.  If they come in and buy, who's left to continue buying?   I know the short sellers are ready to short sell…again.  That's my theory.


But I need to back up that theory and the question is, how long before it comes to bear?  That's where I turn to my market tops analysis that I run weekly.  It has run strong since the turn in early October until this week.  It dropped to 51% green from the 60% range.  In theory, as long it stays above 50%, you should hold.  So that's what I have done so far.  But, as I went through the analysis, I noticed that it would not take much to tip many stocks to Yellow or Red.  Which would drop the Greens under 50% and give the always accurate 2 week warning signal (which means that market will have a short term top anywhere between 1 to 10 trading days).  I believe that if I were to run the analysis after tomorrows action, it would give the 2 week warning signal.


The reason is that most stocks are overextended, moving on lower volume overall, climaxing, and other sell signals.


It also activates a different trading playbook for the next two weeks.  The most important part of which is to signal to immediately get rid of or tighten stop on any laggard positions.  Then continue to rotate that money into the stronger of stocks for another move higher.  But these stocks need to be monitored closely for signs of exhaustion.  So it's NOT a signal to run for the exits, just that money should start to move to the sidelines or into stronger stocks (the narrowing leadership) with tighter stops.


I've expanded that analysis to give me a better idea of what type of top it is, long or short, and depth.  Based on the added indicators, like breadth, leadership, etc…, we're most likely going to see a much longer deeper correction then we're used to.  It's going to be at least around 10%+ lasting at least several weeks.  Too far to figure out what happens then.


Ridicule me if you want on a big up day, but I'm 200% invested long and on alert.  After an awesome rally, I have to worry more about protecting my profits, rather then missing more.   By the time the market tells me to get out, I'll watch a nice chunk of profits disappear.





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Thursday, October 01, 2009

Market Update

We can pretty much go to sleep through at least next week, and I would be bold enough to say the following week too.  Then reassess.  The one or two we might miss if something goes this week or next won't be worth the hassle.  On the other hand...do look for key support areas on leaders for early entries.  But they have to be 10-15%+ off their highs, otherwise your better off waiting.  My 2 cents.





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