Leadership Continues to act Well - Look to Buy- Bullish

Keep stops tight in case of a curveball.  Leadership held up strong over the last few days and during this mornings sell off.  They are also much more reactive to moves up then down.  This is the opposite of the last few days.

Leadership Stocks Showing Alot of Power Ahead of the Market - Bullish

Keep Your Eyes Open for Possible Long Entries

Don't get too invested, but if the market starts to turn positive one or two small positions will not hurt. Leadership has continued to hold up in the face of all the bad news and has now started to tighten up. Make sure to keep stops tight on any new buys just in case the market throws us a head fake. We will continue to monitor the long side until we finally see the leaders breakdown hard. Currently most should still be in cash.

Good Luck

No Need To Be a Hero

At this point you should be out of most, if not all of your long positions.  If you've held a stock for a very long time and it is still acting well that is a different story.  Probably, most got into the market recently just before or after the follow through day, and just don't need to give back more money then they have to.

What looked like a promising developing rally has turned into a big fake out.  As I stated in my friday blog, the combination of a day 2 distribution day and a close below the follow through day's low, is a deadly one two knockout combination for the market.  The lesson here for most is, when a market diverges from a precedent, you need to go on the defense quickly.  Hesitate, and it could get REALLY ugly.

This looks like it could be the third wave down of the first leg that started  04-26-2010 which generally is preceded by another rally attempt, of several weeks, that sets up a second, multi-wave, leg down.  Those rallies can be profitable as the market attempts to rally back to a key moving average.

I'd say to avoid the short side for those not able to monitor their stocks intra-day.  The setups that are out there may be good for a few hours or days, but need more time to setup the ugliness of a continued to downtrend.  So if you can't trade them, avoid them. 

Stay patient and keep your lists fresh.  You never know if the market has another diverging idea :o).

Cash is Now KING

If this turns out to be a shakeout I will be very surprised.  With an undercut of the follow through day lows and high volume distribution developing on the indexes so close to the follow through day, both of which have historically led to rally failures, you should be moving to cash. 

I drew my line in the sand at those lows and have now moved almost to cash.  I still have some early buys acting well, but the line in those stocks is now drawn too.  No need to give up all the profit.

Today should be a lesson in how quickly one must act in the market, especially aggressive investors.

Back to the drawing board.

Watch The Follow Through Day Lows

A violation, especially a close below the follow through day lows (NASDAQ - 2210.07), historically leads to failed rallies and a retest of recent lows.  Depending on when you positioned yourself in this rally, you have to make a decision on whether to try and hold through that test or move to cash.  The conservative play is to move to cash.  Many leaders are holding well, but that can end very quickly.

Look for Pullback Entries If Market Holds...But Keep Stops Tight on New Buys

Stay Patinet...Leaders Holding...Set Stops & Let Market Do The Work...Just Don't Panic

NASDAQ Follow Through Confirms Rally - 2007 Precedent Intact

The 2.64% move on the NASDAQ, on higher volume then yesterday, confirms the current rally attempt on day 5.  Two new breakouts, VIRL and THOR, joined the ranks of breakouts.  Further adding confirmation to our bullish stance since the market reversal on 05-25-2010.

Yesterday's sell off back to the 200DMA acted as another great shakeout. If you look at the 08-2007 chart (below) alongside the current NASDAQ, you'll see that the NASDAQ had a similar shakeout back to the 200DMA the day before the follow through day on 08-29-2007 (Black Arrows).

In the current environment you have to be looking to buy pullbacks as they start to turn up. Shakeouts after breakouts have become commonplace.  If you do buy a breakout, you might consider taking a smaller position and wait for the pullback to add.

Continue to keep in mind that this will be more of a tradeable rally then the start of a new prolonged move higher.  Stick to buying the high relative strength names with a proven track record of moving (APKT, NFLX, VMW, SNDK, AAPL, CSTR, ASPS, ISRG, etc...).

The market won't make this leg too easy.  Expect more shakeouts along the way.  Figure out your uncle points ahead of time and place your stops.  It is too easy to let a stop slip when they are held mentally. 

Stay calm and patient, and don't let those greedy emotions get the best of you.

FD:  Long AAPL, APKT, CSTR, ISRG, NFLX

Bullish Conviction Grows Stronger

We're only 3 days off the bottom, but my bullish conviction is getting stronger. Yesterday served as another good shakeout. On the surface it seemed extremely bearish as the market reversed big early gains into losses on heavy volume. But there was one important detail that most missed. Even though the market had reversed, many of the leaders held strongly and closed positive. They did close well off their highs, but as the market started to sell off, the leaders refused to budge lower for quite sometime. In the past few weeks, my entire leadership list would have turned entirely red in that type of action.  Which made me believe that the sell off was more headline driven then real selling which I warned about in my last market update.

Obviously today confirmed my thought process. Between today and yesterday we have seen a number of fundamentally strong stocks breakout to news highs and bounce off their 50/200 day moving average on strong above average volume (APKT, VMW, SNDK, IPXL, SXCI, etc...). Pullback bases are plentiful and most are in a position for early entries and breakouts(AAPL, CREE, LULU, CRM, etc...).

There is no need to rush and get overleveraged (determine your own risk appetite). If this market continues its current action, you will have plenty of time to take advantage. What's most important is that you DO NOT CHASE or you'll risk getting shaken out by a normal pullback. Shakeouts in stocks and markets have become more common place then in the past.

As I stated in my last market update, Market Action Very Similar To 8-16-2007 - Bullish - Updated - NFLX, APKT, SNDK , I believe that this will be the most profitable part of this rally.  It is important to keep in mind that you DO NOT want to get into a buy and hold mentality when things get real good.  Buy only stocks with the strongest fundamentals that have already proven they can move and held up strongly in the face of the NASDAQ's 15% swoon.  This is what I call the "DUH" part of a rally.

Once we get a follow through day, my market tops analysis will be back in play.  Its had an almost perfect record of getting us out on the way up before any real damage could be done to our capital.  Sure it misses some of the final gains, but how would we know to sell at the peak anyway?

Stay patient and get your research done so you are prepared.

SIDE NOTE:
It is amazing how everyone views the market differently.  This afternoon, a CNBC guest stated that if we were to top now, this entire rally from March 2009 would have been one of the weakest in history.  How a 100% move by the NASDAQ and multi 100% moves by leading stocks is the weakest in history is beyond me.


FD:  I own APKT, NFLX, CREE, AAPL, CSTR

Capitalist Bull Quoted in Investor's Business Daily - Potential ETF Leaders In A New Rally

I am quoted in this Investor's Business Daily newspaper article...

Potential ETF Leaders In A New Rally

Market Action Very Similar To 8-16-2007 - Bullish - Updated - NFLX, APKT, SNDK

Below is a snapshot comparing the 8-2007 NASDAQ to the current NASDAQ (green arrows represent the the two positive reversal days). As you can see the market managed to rally quite significantly off that turn around to new highs. That was the most profitable part of the rally for swing traders.

Do not look for new leadsership to emerge, even though some are bound to show up. Look for stocks that are already proven winners, have exhibited high relative strength during the correction, and are must owns for institutions that must be 100% invested (click on charts below).

Don't allow your mind to convince you that we've entered a new buy and hold period. At best, if this rally attempt holds and we follow through, we're looking at a 1 to 3 month rally. It'll get easier to tighten up that time frame once we really get moving.

Don't panic and buy blindly.  If August of 2007 is any precendent, we should get more setups over the next few days and weeks.  Definately dip your toes in and add as new opportunities present themselves on pullbacks or base completion.

Headline risk out of Europe and Asia will keep the volatility high, so be vigilant with your stops.  You're going to have to endure it to some degree if you're going to maximize your returns. 

Ultimately we're still waiting for a follow through day to confirm this rally.  So any buys before that are high risk, but also carry a high reward.

Good Luck

PS
I alerted readers of this blog early yesterday to the possible turn around.  If you want real time alerts and updates, sign up at Twitter and follow Gennady17.  Sign up for the FREE newsletter at Capitalist Bull for a daily digest of the blog's activites (don't forget to look for a confirmation email).

FD - Long APKT and NFLX

Stocks End Mixed After Big Turnaround - Investors.com

The S&P 500, NYSE composite and Dow undercut the lows of last winter's correction. But indexes rebounded and the S&P closed with a fractional gain. The Dow dipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.1%. The NYSE closed practically unchanged.

Read More...

Market Action Very Similar To 8-16-2007 - Bullish

If you compare the charts, this day was very similar to that day and period.  A gap up tomorrow would confirm it.  We did get setups over the next 4 weeks back then before the market really launched into its final run.

Gennady Kupershteyn

Follow me on Twitter or Capitalist Bull
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Market Presenting Some Excellent Intra-day Entries

Stocks Stumble As European Concerns Still Linger - Investors.com

The stock market resumed its losing ways Monday as the European financial crisis continued to weigh.

The NYSE composite tumbled 1.6%, the S&P 500 1.3% and the Dow 1.2%. The Nasdaq fell 0.7% as late selling sealed the index's loss. All major indexes closed near session lows. Volume was down sharply from Friday's options-expirations pace.


Read More...

Harry Dent - May 11th Commentary

Patience...No Need To Panic Buy...Yet

In my April 14th blog entry, Don't Chase The Market, I wrote, "Based on model studies most of the stocks will pullback at some point and most will be buyable right around this range".  In my April 12th blog entry, The Market That Won't Pullback, I wrote, "Unless we're going climactic, I can almost promise that you will get a chance to buy most of the leaders that have been moving higher at or near current prices after the next pullback".  The reason for both entries, "I found overtime that it is easier to deal with missed profits then with lost profits.  If you're sitting in cash and waiting for the pullback and are ready to pull the trigger, it will be easier to do so.  If you're invested and have to sit through a pullback, even though you may understand it is normal, your EMOTIONS DO NOT.  They will force you to run for the exits just as you should be ready to add more."  So here we are almost a month later and most stocks are right around the range they were about a month ago.


Just like death and taxes, pullbacks in the stock market are inevitable.  Patience to wait for and during them is another story.  If you did manage to wait, you are most likely extremely antsy to buy right now.  After all, you either missed or did not profit as much as you would have like too in the previous rally.  So you don't want to make the same mistake again and are ready to pounce on the first pullback.  But I say wait.


The market and it's leading stocks are only in their first two weeks of the correction.  The volatility day to day is a bit too extreme...one day up big followed by one day down big.  Headline risk from Europe and Goldman Sachs add to the uncertainty.  It's a rollercoaster ride you do not want to be on.


The game plan right now is to build a watchlist of stocks you are interested in buying.  Try to identify the type of pattern the stock is forming and how much more time it needs to complete the pattern.  Then determine what you would want to see, preferably based on previous model studies, in order to begin entering the stock.  This takes away the risk of randomly buying and selling, which often leads to churning.


Based on the current action of the leading stocks, we have at least another 2 - 3 weeks of sideways to downward action before the rally can resume.  Some stocks are further into their consolidations and could be buyable earlier.  For now I would stay away from buying anything and focus all my efforts on research.


Side Note


If you have been holding a big winner for sometime and the stock is acting fine, there is no reason to sell.   Swing traders on the other hand need to be flat on the long side.

Don't Even Think About Shorting

Some of my readers have asked if they should look to short this market.  NO, NO, NO...Even though the market  has shown signs of a possible upcoming pullback or correction, you don't want to mess with this brake less locomotive.

Each night I look at my short and long screens.  I have found that, and this has been pretty common for some months now, short setups tend to break up, not down.  Or they will start to breakdown and squeeze hard over the next few days.  This is not the type of action you want if you're considering a short trade for more then a few hours.  In fact this is the only reason that I have continued to take long trades even though it seemed on several occasions the market was ready to correct.

Even if I knew the market was going to go down tomorrow I would not attempt to short for more then a day.  The bulls just have too much power right now to warrant the risk/reward.  The short side will be no different then the long side eventually.  You will see plenty of setups and evidence that it is working.

On the long side I continue to trade.  I do not want to get caught over invested.  If the market keeps rising I will participate as a swing trader.  Most of the stocks I'd like to own are just too extended to take long term positions.

Questions, comments, and suggestions always welcome.

Good Luck

$PETS Trade Reviewed 2005 - 2006

It is always important to review your winners and losers. Below is a chart of PETS, a trade we were in from 2005 - 2006 (click on the chart to enlarge it). Ignore the data on the left side of the page.  That was the data at the time the snapshot was taken and does not reflect the data present at the time of the trade (I don't have anything available to rebuild that information from the past).

Comments and Questions Always Welcome.

$KLIC - 2000

KLIC was a top stock during the bubble years that topped in 2000 with dire consequences http://capitalistbull.blogspot.com/2000/08/kulicke-soffa-klic.html.  Enjoy

$IMAX - Sell Signal

IMAX has been a big winner in this rally.  But it seems that there are quite a few offensive sell signals (click on chart to enlarge) that dictate that it is time to protect your profit.  If you've recently entered the position, I'd be very vigilant with the stock.  If you were lucky enough to have bought the stock early, you could try and hang on for a possible second climax move.  But you'd probably be better off protecting yourself now, and re-entering later, since the second climax is not a sure thing and will need another few week to form.

$NTRI - 2007

Here is a an article I wrote about NTRI in 2007.  Even during the best part of a bull market, a stock with fantastic fundamentals could top and head lower.  This is a good lesson why not falling in love with a stock is EXTREMELY important.  They can top at anytime.

http://capitalistbull.blogspot.com/2007/02/ntri-short_08.html

Don't Chase The Market

If you're still sitting out, the pain you feel is becoming unbearable.  You're ready to buy something just to feel better.  Well, don't do it.  Chasing many of the extended leaders is a high risk proposition.  Based on model studies most of the stocks will pullback at some point and most will be buyable right around this range.

So then why wait you ask?  I found overtime that it is easier to deal with missed profits then with lost profits.  If you're sitting in cash and waiting for the pullback and are ready to pull the trigger, it will be easier to do so.  If you're invested and have to sit through a pullback, even though you may understand it is normal, your EMOTIONS DO NOT.  They will force you to run for the exits just as you should be ready to add more.

I continue to swing trade this market and protect my profits and risk vigilantly.  I do not want to get or be fully invested just when the sellers and buyers decide enough is enough.  Stay patient and don't let those emotions get the best of you.

Comments always welcome...

The Market That Won't Pullback

We have seen quite a resilient market.  Considering the low volume in the market and on stocks, you would have expected some sort of pullback already, and yet both keep pushing higher.  It seems the sellers are holding out for more volume, because when they do come in from time to time, there is generally a very hard reaction.

So what if you've sat this one out?  About the only thing you can do at this time is to take multi day swing trades and patiently wait for the next pullback opportunity.  Is it possible this market just keeps going...sure.  But you will get rotation amongst the leaders pulling back to their 20 or 50 dma's.  Otherwise the risk is too high to enter the majority of stocks at this point to hold for an investment.

Unless we're going climactic, I can almost promise that you will get a chance to buy most of the leaders that have been moving higher at or near current prices after the next pullback.  Except you won't have to sit through the eventual pullback.  Now the only question is, will the next pullback be buyable?  Only time will tell.  I do know one thing, it will be at the worst moment when the best opportunities will present themselves.

A Bull Trap Setting Up or Setup

If you've been following my tweets, you know that I've been quite cautious with this rally most of the time. But, 2 weeks ago it seemed the market could sit around and consolidate into a new strong move, but that doesn't seem to be the case as of this weekend. I do expect the current tightness to resolve to the upside first, but would not be surprised to see sellers come in within the next week or two, if not few days. So there could be big trading gains to be had, but they need to be protected. So why the change of stance?

1. Low volume - leading stock have been drifting higher in low volume for the past few weeks. Some will argue that it was due to the upcoming holiday weekend, but I've found historically that that excuse tends to be more of a trap then a valid reason.
2. New bases are either too wild, have extremely low relative strength, or very late stage. The argument here could be that new leadership is setting up, but you generally want new leadership to setup during corrections and pullbacks not while the market has already made a significant move from the lows, and the late nature of the other bases tends to be failure prone.
3. Many leaders have exhibited mini climactic action. Keep in mind, climactic action is not always obvious on the charts. But pay attention if you're stock has had any type of unusually large spike on heavy volume that would be out of the norm for the stock.
4. There have been a bunch of attempted breakouts that have come on low volume and others are failing or have failed pretty quickly.
5. Markets and stocks have been acting extremely erratic intra-day. In many cases stocks are round tripping there moves 2 to 3 times a day. This type of action tends to be more indicative of distribution.
6. Market is heading into overhead from the 2006 - 2008 rally. Again one can argue that it doesn't matter anymore because of the time that has passed. But, the market fell and then rose so fast, there might not have been enough time to shake out the weak hands. Usually such severe bear markets are followed by mild bear markets, and we did not get that this time. So there could still be a large overhang of supply (but this is just opinion).
7. The rally off the recent lows has had very little participation from your traditional fundamentally strong stocks. Now sometimes it does take up to a month plus for stocks to get going, but the above points kind of invalidate that theory.

Right now my game plan is pretty simple. I won't defy the market. But I have tightened up my stocks and will take only the trades that do not risk my other profits. Any large out of the ordinary moves by my stocks will be a sign to sell not cheer.

I've been through these types of situation before. They generally do not end well when they stop. Especially with recent purchases. So take it one day at a time and be careful.

Gennady Kupershteyn

Follow me on Twitter or Capitalist Bull

Market Readying for the Big Up Move

I can't find any reason to be bearish outside of saying that the market might have a shakeout before it runs. After another review this morning, many stocks have finally reached their 20dma's. Others have started to bounce off them. Some are starting to tighten around them, while others are somewhere between their 3rd and 5th weeks of consolidation to the 50dma. I'd bet this market is going to wait for the big jobs report on Friday and react to both the ADP (Wednesday) and weekly claims (Thursday). But the Friday jobs reports could be the catalyst. I don't see any reason why you should not start taking positions off logical areas of support now. I do believe if you were to wait for a little more of a confirmation from the market, mainly the leading stocks, there will still be some opportunities if not all the opportunities if there is one shakeout before we run. Otherwise about the only thing that derails this market now, is a piece of news out of left field no sees coming.

Good Luck

Gennady Kupershteyn

Follow me on Twitter or Capitalist Bull

CNBC Interview 2003 - Extreme Investing

I was interviewed on CNBC a few years ago, my 15 minutes of fame. Enjoy.

The Market's Holiday Gift - A Rally

The market seems to be in the mood to give investors one more gift before the year is over.  One more tradeable rally before all is said and done.  We've shuffled sideways for the past 8-9 weeks with very few stocks making progress.  But we finally have a tape that typically precedes tradeable rallies.   Here is what I see:

 

•  Large cap tech stocks have held up beautifully and consolidated their gains into new bases or bounces off moving averages.
•  Small and mid caps are leading again with some new leaders and old leaders back at the helm.
•  Overextended small and mid cap leaders have digested their gains and allowed moving averages to catch up.
•  Recent breakouts have held…VERY IMPORTANT FACT.
•  A lot of tight trading action after some wild weeks.

 

Other secondary opinionated reasons:

 

• Fund managers are not about to set off a sell off and ruin their year end bonuses.  Why not try and run it and increase them.
• Too much of an expectation for a sell off…Market does like to fool the masses (hate clichés, but they are based on truth).
• Many investors that are flat or underwater for the year would love to jump in on a rally resumption to try and make something of this year.
• I can list many more, but all you need to do is listen to the news.

 

I don't believe the rally will last very long (2-4 weeks).  The leadership has narrowed further from previous tradeable rallies and the base foundation underneath is shaky.   My plan of attack is to take the trades as they come along, and use my market tops analysis as a trading guide.  As of now it has turned positive for the first time since it's correction call in October. 

 

So The market may finally give investors the climactic part of the rally they have been looking for.  Of course it's all a self fulfilling prophecy as those same investors will be the one's driving the stocks up, with no one to sell back to eventually.  Good luck, don't fall in love with your stocks(trades), and I wish everyone a HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

 

 

 

Gennady Kupershteyn

Follow me on Seeking Alpha or Twitter or Capitalist Bull  

Time For A Bounce?

We're real close to a possible bounce in the market. Maybe as close as sometime tomorrow. But first I would expect the market to follow through to the downside a bit more. Preferably to the 50DMA. There are a few reason for this:

 

- Many leaders are at critical support areas.

- The market is not used to the market being down more then two weeks in a row.

- Many of the better short opportunities have either sold off to or nearing critical support.

- Many funds close out their years in October.

 

The market in the short run is nothing more then the collective buying and selling of all of its participants. Considering that most participants have now gotten used to a quick selloff followed by a rally and the day traders are eyeing the critical support areas for a bounce, it would not be surprising to see a reflex reaction, maybe in the next day or two. Preferably next week…more of rubber band effect.

 

If you're a long term oriented investor, be careful as the bounce will most likely be nothing more then a bull trap. But traders, load your weapons, you might just get a nice quick tradeable rally. But it will only last a few days to maybe two weeks.

 

 

the latest blog... http://seekingalpha.com/user/33050-capitalist-bull/instablog

 

You can follow my short commentary in real time on either Twitter, http://twitter.com/gennady17, or seeking Alpha Stock Talk, http://seekingalpha.com/user/33050/stocktalk.  Enjoy.
 

 

 

 

Gennady Kupershteyn

Follow me on Seeking Alpha or Twitter or Capitalist Bull  

Cash Cash and more Cash

There is no reason to be a hero at this point.  My weekly analysis of strength in the market already signaled the 2 week warning last week, now it's screaming to get out.  At best this has become a day traders market.  You can wait for a clearer signal on your stocks, but the analysis is doing it for you.
 

 

 

 

GK

Follow me on Seeking Alpha or Twitter or Capitalist Bull  

Listen to the Market

There's an old cliché in the stock market, listen to the market.  Sounds simple.  It's not.    The market does a great job lying at key turning points. Take tomorrow for example, the market is poised to open 1% higher on strong earnings reports from AAPL and TXN.  Advancers will be greater then decliners, volume will run high, many new 52 week highs, etc.  Sounds great!!  It's not.  That's the lie.  You need to look under the hood, to really see what's driving this market.  So what do I see.

 

I see a market that's running out of steam.  Leadership is narrowing, many stocks are well extended, and we're at the perfect TRAP TRAP scenario. Shorts have been made to pay the price since the beginning of this bull.  But they have continued to try and hold on and can only endure so much pain. So they need to draw a line in the sand to cover.

 

Longs have continued to distrust this market, but after watching it rise 70%+, are nervous about missing the rest of the move.  So they too have to draw a line in the sand on how much longer they can wait before buying.

 

As kind as the market is, it gladly provides the line in the sand for both…at the same time…DOW 10K, Critical Elliot Wave Resistance Point, and strong earnings among other things coming together.  So the shorts are forced to buy to cover in panic, and the underinvested longs just must get invested. Sounds good on the surface.  Wrong again.  This was the final money on the sidelines.  If they come in and buy, who's left to continue buying?   I know the short sellers are ready to short sell…again.  That's my theory.

 

But I need to back up that theory and the question is, how long before it comes to bear?  That's where I turn to my market tops analysis that I run weekly.  It has run strong since the turn in early October until this week.  It dropped to 51% green from the 60% range.  In theory, as long it stays above 50%, you should hold.  So that's what I have done so far.  But, as I went through the analysis, I noticed that it would not take much to tip many stocks to Yellow or Red.  Which would drop the Greens under 50% and give the always accurate 2 week warning signal (which means that market will have a short term top anywhere between 1 to 10 trading days).  I believe that if I were to run the analysis after tomorrows action, it would give the 2 week warning signal.

 

The reason is that most stocks are overextended, moving on lower volume overall, climaxing, and other sell signals.

 

It also activates a different trading playbook for the next two weeks.  The most important part of which is to signal to immediately get rid of or tighten stop on any laggard positions.  Then continue to rotate that money into the stronger of stocks for another move higher.  But these stocks need to be monitored closely for signs of exhaustion.  So it's NOT a signal to run for the exits, just that money should start to move to the sidelines or into stronger stocks (the narrowing leadership) with tighter stops.

 

I've expanded that analysis to give me a better idea of what type of top it is, long or short, and depth.  Based on the added indicators, like breadth, leadership, etc…, we're most likely going to see a much longer deeper correction then we're used to.  It's going to be at least around 10%+ lasting at least several weeks.  Too far to figure out what happens then.

 

Ridicule me if you want on a big up day, but I'm 200% invested long and on alert.  After an awesome rally, I have to worry more about protecting my profits, rather then missing more.   By the time the market tells me to get out, I'll watch a nice chunk of profits disappear.

 

 

 

 

Follow me on Seeking Alpha - http://seekingalpha.com/user/33050/profile

Follow me on Twitter- http://twitter.com/gennady17

Follow my Blog - http://capitalistbull.blogspot.com/

 

Market Update

We can pretty much go to sleep through at least next week, and I would be bold enough to say the following week too.  Then reassess.  The one or two we might miss if something goes this week or next won't be worth the hassle.  On the other hand...do look for key support areas on leaders for early entries.  But they have to be 10-15%+ off their highs, otherwise your better off waiting.  My 2 cents.

 

 

 

 

Follow me on Seeking Alpha - http://seekingalpha.com/user/33050/profile

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Bullish..But...

Overall Bullish on the market...expect one more shakeout (quick)...setups point to a 3 - 4 week rally afterwards. Comments?
 

 

Gennady Kupershteyn wants to keep up with you on Twitter

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Stocks Preparing for Next Move

At first glance, it doesn't look like this correction (my correction) will last longer then another 2 weeks. There are some new potential leaders that cropped up and many current leaders have pulled back anywhere from 3 - 5 weeks to their 20 or 50dma's. There aren't too many extended leaders, but enough to create a psychological drag if they correct, which they most likely will.

This list needs several iterations. I just see too much possibility right now.

I say next week is down and possibly right after labor day. Which would be a real good shakeout. But we need to be ready if market has other plans.

Time for a Break

I don't believe anyone will miss anything over the rest of August except for sideways or corrective action. JMI, but everything is pointing to a correction.

Market Needs a Rest

Am I the only one finding the heavy volume within this consolidation as a potential major problem? My plan right now is to trail everything tight, but loose enough not to get tagged out in a morning drawdown like todays. I just find very little participation here, and the small caps are all very overextended. I personally believe that a correction is in the cards very soon, which will lead to another powerful leg in the overall rally.



Thanks and Happy Investing!

Time To Wade Back In

Today was a scary day if you were long or thinking of going long.  But days like today present buying opportunities especially considering the action of the leaders since we fell into this correction on June 11th.

 

Leaders continue to hold key support areas.  This is extremely positive considering we are down 8%+ on all the indexes at today's low. 

 

We had a scary shakeout in every leader today, while the general market managed to hold steady in heavy volume.  The pattern for this correction has been the exact opposite.  While indexes were getting hit leaders held.  Today's action is typical for shakeouts.

 

There have been, and still are, many early entry opportunities if this rally is to resume.  The best plan of action is to weed back in here.  Don't wait too long, as the risk increases as stocks move away from their pullbacks.  Reason, too much volatility around breakouts makes it very difficult to hold.

 

Everything I look at at, points to a resumption of this rally.  If I'm wrong, the risk is not high right here.

 

Good Luck