Monday, November 29, 2004

Market Letter

The market has paused since the 17th. Can we say dollar? Yes, thedollars depreciation has almost taken over for oil as a potentialmarket drag. But all bull markets like to climb a wall of worry, sothis is the new worry of the day. Don't worry; oil is still in theback of most people's mind.

All bull markets pause to consolidate and shake off the froth. Thisweek brings alot of big economic reports. GDP, oil inventories, andpayroll numbers. Any of these numbers can jolt the market one wayor another. If you've noticed the action in the market, you've seenthe market gap up and come in almost regularly on these reports,similar action to the bull run of last year. This type of actiontends to suppress the speculation in the market, and allow it tomove in a steady fashion. But, speculation can't be held backforever, and once it is unleashed, that final run is usually a signof a top to come. My point is, in a gap up opening, be careful ininitiating long positions that day, as they might quickly reverse onyou. Best times to buy, is a flat opening, or a down opening and areversal into positive territory.

Keep looking for breakouts as leading stocks continue to consolidatewell, as the market takes a breather. If my assumptions arecorrect, the market should continue to move higher through the firstquarter of next year. But keep an eye on it, conditions can changein as little as one week.
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