Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Little Rally That Could

Chooo!! Chooo!!! I think I can, I think I can. The market is showing some resilience and new leadership is slowly taking hold. I spent a lot of time this weekend pouring over charts and found that the place to be is long. There was a sudden surge of setups that crept up over the last four days.

The only problem, most are kind of sloppy, but if you take out that one week disaster, the bases start to look much nicer. My long list went from none to a ton. I did have to do some work to weed out the few that were able to escape the markets beat down, and so far they have performed great.

Again, I have to reiterate my skepticism, but at this point I have dipped back into the long side today, and will continue to do so until signs of trouble emerge. I would have thought that by now some signs would have emerged. But outside of this morning's sell off, on low volume, which is great, the market itself has acted quite perfectly. And the recovery off the lows today came on a pick up on volume and the many new potential leaders that are on my list really picked up steam just before the market really perked up and exploded as the NASDAQ went positive.

With a quiet period ahead, we may be in for a nice little rally over the next few weeks with some powerful moves. I don't expect much more, but considering no one else does, maybe the market surprises us.


I still hold my bull trap theory. Now that we got a correction of around 8%, the good move off the lows will serve to bring in the money that was waiting for the correction. The money that did not leave the market during the market, will stay put. The skeptical money will creep in as the market moves higher unabated (if that's the markets plan), and just when things start to look rosy, watch out. But for now, play it long, just look out for the subtle sell signals, I wouldn't ignore them. But they are hard to recognize, since you will be looking for the signals that reaffirm your bullish view.
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