Sunday, November 04, 2007

Fw: READ:My Take So Far

Outside some pullback plays, I don't really have anything solid setup (for the pullback plays to offer entries a correction would be needed).  Everything else is extended, including some that I would classify as pullbacks.  All this points to one of two outcomes.  Another surge higher, but not much since everything would really become overextended (correction would be sudden probably wiping out any gain from this point), or a continued pullback that started last week on the NAS & 2 weeks ago on the other indexes.  In either case, I do believe that all or mostly cash is the safer bet (strongest stocks only if stocks are to be held).  Only another 99-00 type run would make cash to mostly cash seem foolish at this time (if I could predict that, I would be RICH!!  VERY RICH!!!).  Risks outweigh the rewards at this time in the general market.  My analysis of sell signals to buy signals has 56% Sell to 44% Buy (and getting worse as I get lower on the list).  Which is approx. the % split back in July (60% sell to 40% Buy) before the sell off.
 
PS
I personally moved to cash on Wednesday.  I will buyback if the scenario changes.

 



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