Wednesday, March 19, 2008

So Much For A Relief Rally

It looked promising a week ago as the commodity names were setup to potentially lead a short counter trend rally within this bear market.  But that all ended today as the bear finally broke those stocks hard on heavy volume.  These moves don't tend to last just a day.  And considering that the Fed has thrown the kitchen sink at the market the last two weeks and it hasn't worked, I can't see any positives over the next week or two that will keep this market from continuing to the downside.  In fact, it seem that there are problems developing over the pond in their banking system.


If you attempted to get long yesterday on what seemed to be a possible follow through day, you probably got stopped out today.  The problem was that yesterday's volume was below the previous day's volume which is not a good sign for such a strong price day.  If you happen to get into the few stocks that are still working and have a profit, you can hang on, but don't let the gain turn into a large loss.


If you're looking to short, I would wait for a day, preferably tomorrow or Friday where the market tries to bring in the shorts and fails.


If you're a long only trader, be patient and don't get frustrated.  The market will rally one day.  Keep building those lists.  Even though the commodity names did not work out, a good portion of my list has not fallen apart yet.  I have a good number of stocks that given a few more weeks would be ready to rally with a strong market.  So keep your chin up and powder dry.


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