Monday, June 02, 2014

Deceitful Market Difficult to Navigate

Below average volume in the indices, as the market rises, is a growing concern, but price action has been positive. Since the follow through day, there have been no distribution (high volume selling) days, so sellers aren't in a hurry to get out. The market has had some major intra-day shakeouts, but has closed positive or at the high's of the day, as volume rose, showing support. 

Leading growth stocks have been mixed. Many have been unable to muster much strength or follow through, but several have managed to breakout, move strongly up the right side of their cup shaped based in above average volume, and hold tight recent gains. An inability to follow through while the market rises would me a major concern. Smith and Wesson (SWHC) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) broke out from flat bases on top of cup and handle bases and are still in a buyable  range. American Airlines (AAL) followed through on its recent breakout of of a cup and handle base in above average volume. Netflix (NFLX), Priceline (PCLN), NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP), and Lannett (LCI) continued to build the right side of their bases. Air Lease (AL), a frequent trading idea, has acted perfectly since the shakeout below the fifty day moving average.

A low volume rally can succeed over a short period of time. It allows leading growth stocks to build better bases, setup closer to more profitable breakout levels, and stronger to survive the next correction. But, they do not last long and have to be navigated cautiously.

Ultimately, a major correction or bear market in the indices, to reset and strengthen a new uptrend is preferred. Until then, the market will most likely continue the choppy trading environment. Traders need to stay very nimble and tight. Breakouts should not look back. If they do, consider booking gains or tightening stops to protect from major, even minor losses. Even if that means being shaken out or having to buy back. Protect capital until the risk reward environment improves. Choppy market environments have broken many investors and traders.

Full Disclosure: Hold position in PXD
Post a Comment