Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) Poised For Further Downside

Lululemon Athletica (LULU), once a Wall Street darling and high flier, advanced over 3,800% from it 2009 lows, but has traded down over 55% since peaking at 82.50 in June of 2013. Margins have decelerated for five straight quarters, and sales and earnings growth which averaged over 30% consistently, are now expected to barely average 10% growth over the next three years. The company has beaten significantly downward revised estimates in each of the past four quarters, but analyst continue to revise future estimates lower despite those beats.

The stock is fairly valued at these levels if the company can slow down the deceleration of growth. If not, the stock could trade down to the mid 20's on another poor earning's report. A breakdown below the fifty day moving average around $39.50 - 40.00, in heavy volume, could signal another wave down for the stock. Protective stops should be placed around $42. Keep in mind, the stock is already down significantly and is susceptible to a major squeeze on news of better margins or a pick up in sales or earning growth.

Full Disclosure: No Current Position

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