Monday, July 31, 2000

Noven Pharmaceuticals - NOVN


Here's a stock worth keeping an eye on. The stock is in the final stages of forming a cup with handle pattern. It has been forming a downward wedging handle for four weeks on declining volume. Exactly the type of price and volume action you'd like to see at the end of a cup and handle formation. This type of action shakes out the week holders.

The price inside the handle needs to hold above support at around 23.75 or the whole pattern could be rendered a failure, and may present a shorting opportunity under the support level.

Fundamentally the stock is starting to hit its stride. The company is expected to grow 100% this year, and 65% next year. Its five year projected growth rate is 40%. Analyst have been raising their estimates quite consistantly for the next two quarters and years.

Look for the stock to break the high of its handle at 31.875 before initiating a position. If the stock breaks out on heavy volume and continues higher, it could double rather quickly. But of course, either your stop loss, or the action in the price and volume will guide your sell decision.

Remember: 7% stop losses from your buy point on all trades, or whatever you're comfortable with. Preserve your capital, and you will live to fight another day. Lose it, and back to mutual funds you go.
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